A more complete measure of vertical integration between physicians and hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an accurate and reproducible measure of vertical integration between physicians and hospitals (defined as hospital or health system employment of physicians), which can be used to assess the impact of integration on healthcare quality and spending. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: We use multiple data sources including from the Internal Revenue Service, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and others to determine the Tax Identification Numbers (TINs) that hospitals and physicians use to bill Medicare for services, and link physician billing TINs to hospital-related TINs. STUDY DESIGN: We developed a new measure of vertical integration, based on the TINs that hospitals and physicians use to bill Medicare, using a broad set of sources for hospital-related TINs. We considered physicians as hospital-employed if they bill Medicare primarily or exclusively using hospital-related TINs. We assessed integration status for all physicians who billed Medicare from 1999 to 2019. We compared this measure with others used in the existing literature. We conducted a simulation study which highlights the importance of accurately identifying integrated physicians when study the effects of integration. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We extracted physician and hospital-related TINs from multiple sources, emphasizing specificity (a small proportion of nonintegrated physicians identified as integrated). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified 12,269 hospital-related TINs, used for billing by 546,775 physicians. We estimate that the percentage of integrated physicians rose from 19% in 1999 to 43% in 2019. Our approach identifies many additional physician practices as integrated; a simpler TIN measure, comparable with prior work, identifies only 30% (3877) of the TINs we identify. A service location measure, used in prior work, has both many false positives and false negatives. CONCLUSION: We developed a new measure of hospital-physician integration. This measure is reproducible and identifies many additional physician practices as integrated.

Defining Incidental Versus Non-incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations.

Background Rates of COVID-19 hospitalization are an important measure of the health system burden of severe COVID-19 disease and have been closely followed throughout the pandemic. The highly transmittable, but often less severe, Omicron COVID-19 variant has led to an increase in hospitalizations with incidental COVID-19 diagnoses where COVID-19 is not the primary reason for admission. There is a strong public health need for a measure that is implementable at low cost with standard electronic health record (EHR) datasets that can separate these incidental hospitalizations from non-incidental hospitalizations where COVID-19 is the primary cause or an important contributor. Two crude metrics are in common use. The first uses in-hospital administration of dexamethasone as a marker of non-incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations. The second, used by the United States (US) CDC, relies on a limited set of COVID-19-related diagnoses (i.e., respiratory failure, pneumonia). Both measures likely undercount non-incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations. We therefore developed an improved EHR-based measure that is better able to capture the full range of COVID-19 hospitalizations. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of ED visit data from a national emergency medicine group from April 2020 to August 2023. We assessed the CDC approach, the dexamethasone-based measure, and alternative approaches that rely on co-diagnoses likely to be related to COVID-19, to determine the proportion of non-incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations. Results Of the 153,325 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at 112 general EDs in 17 US states, and admitted or transferred, our preferred measure classified 108,243 (70.6%) as non-incidental, compared to 71,066 (46.3%) using the dexamethasone measure and 77,399 (50.5%) using the CDC measure. Conclusions Identifying non-incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations using ED administration of dexamethasone or the CDC measure provides substantially lower estimates than our preferred measure.

COVID-19 Boosters: If The US Had Matched Israel's Speed And Take-Up, An Estimated 29,000 US Lives Would Have Been Saved.

Israel was the first country to launch COVID-19 boosters, in late July 2021, with strong public health messaging. The booster campaign reversed rising infection rates from the Delta variant and reduced hospitalizations and deaths. The US booster rollout was slower, and public health messaging was mixed. We used the Israeli experience to ask the counterfactual question: How many lives could the US have saved if it had authorized boosters sooner? We estimated that through June 30, 2022, if the US had moved at Israel's speed and booster take-up percentages, it would have saved 29,000 lives. US regulatory caution, in the middle of a pandemic, thus had a large, avoidable cost. Yet the US booster rollout still avoided 42,000 deaths. Moving more slowly to approve boosters, as some advocated, would have cost many additional lives.

Risks and Benefits of Clinical Diagnosis Around the Time of Dementia Onset.

Diagnostic delay in dementia is common in the U.S. Drivers of diagnostic delay are poorly understood, but appear related to misconceptions about dementia, stigma, concerns about autonomy, the nature of the diagnostic process, and provider-related factors. There is little quantitative evidence underlying cited risks and benefits of receiving a diagnosis around the time of dementia onset, including impacts on physical health, impacts on mental health, care partner interactions, costs of care, increased time for care planning, or earlier access to treatment. While various groups continue to push for reductions in diagnostic delay, realization of benefits and mitigation of harms will require new research on potential benefits and harms. Workforce and resource constraints, coupled with the expected growth in the number of persons living with dementia, may be a barrier to realization of potential benefits and mitigation of identified harms, which will require adequate access to providers, services, and supports.

Emergency Department Volume, Severity, and Crowding Since the Onset of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe emergency department (ED) visit volume, illness severity, and crowding metrics from the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic through mid-2022. METHODS: We tabulated monthly data from 14 million ED visits on ED volumes and measures of illness severity and crowding from March 2020 through August 2022 compared with the same months in 2019 in 111 EDs staffed by a national ED practice group in 18 states. RESULTS: Average monthly ED volumes fell in the early pandemic, partially recovered in 2022, but remained below 2019 levels (915 per ED in 2019 to 826.6 in 2022 for admitted patients; 3,026.9 to 2,478.5 for discharged patients). The proportion of visits assessed as critical care increased from 7.9% in 2019 to 11.0% in 2022, whereas the number of visits decreased (318,802 to 264,350). Visits billed as 99285 (the highest-acuity Evaluation and Management code for noncritical care visits) increased from 35.4% of visits in 2019 to 40.0% in 2022, whereas the number of visits decreased (1,434,454 to 952,422). Median and median of 90th percentile length of stay for admitted patients rose 32% (5.2 to 6.9 hours) and 47% (11.7 to 17.4 hours) in 2022 versus 2019. Patients leaving without treatment rose 86% (2.9% to 5.4%). For admitted psychiatric patients, the 90th percentile length of stay increased from 20 hours to more than 1 day. CONCLUSION: ED visit volumes fell early in the pandemic and have only partly recovered. Despite lower volumes, ED crowding has increased. This issue is magnified in psychiatric patients.

Estimating the uncertain effect of the COVID pandemic on drug overdoses.

OBJECTIVE: U.S. drug-related overdose deaths and Emergency Department (ED) visits rose in 2020 and again in 2021. Many academic studies and the news media attributed this rise primarily to increased drug use resulting from the societal disruptions related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A competing explanation is that higher overdose deaths and ED visits may have reflected a continuation of pre-pandemic trends in synthetic-opioid deaths, which began to rise in mid-2019. We assess the evidence on whether increases in overdose deaths and ED visits are likely to be related primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased synthetic-opioid use, or some of both. METHODS: We use national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on rolling 12-month drug-related deaths (2015-2021); CDC data on monthly ED visits (2019-September 2020) for EDs in 42 states; and ED visit data for 181 EDs in 24 states staffed by a national ED physician staffing group (January 2016-June 2022). We study drug overdose deaths per 100,000 persons during the pandemic period, and ED visits for drug overdoses, in both cases compared to predicted levels based on pre-pandemic trends. RESULTS: Mortality. National overdose mortality increased from 21/100,000 in 2019 to 26/100,000 in 2020 and 30/100,000 in 2021. The rise in mortality began in mid-to-late half of 2019, and the 2020 increase is well-predicted by models that extrapolate pre-pandemic trends for rolling 12-month mortality to the pandemic period. Placebo analyses (which assume the pandemic started earlier or later than March 2020) do not provide evidence for a change in trend in or soon after March 2020. State-level analyses of actual mortality, relative to mortality predicted based on pre-pandemic trends, show no consistent pattern. The state-level results support state heterogeneity in overdose mortality trends, and do not support the pandemic being a major driver of overdose mortality. ED visits. ED overdose visits rose during our sample period, reflecting a worsening opioid epidemic, but rose at similar rates during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. CONCLUSION: The reasons for rising overdose mortality in 2020 and 2021 cannot be definitely determined. We lack a control group and thus cannot assess causation. However, the observed increases can be largely explained by a continuation of pre-pandemic trends toward rising synthetic-opioid deaths, principally fentanyl, that began in mid-to-late 2019. We do not find evidence supporting the pandemic as a major driver of rising mortality. Policymakers need to directly address the synthetic opioid epidemic, and not expect a respite as the pandemic recedes.

The Cost Shifting Economics of United States Emergency Department Professional Services (2016-2019).

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We estimate the economics of US emergency department (ED) professional services, which is increasingly under strain given the longstanding effect of unreimbursed care, and falling Medicare and commercial payments. METHODS: We used data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), Medicare, Medicaid, Health Care Cost Institute, and surveys to estimate national ED clinician revenue and costs from 2016 to 2019. We compare annual revenue and cost for each payor and calculate foregone revenue, the amount clinicians may have collected had uninsured patients had either Medicaid or commercial insurance. RESULTS: In 576.5 million ED visits (2016 to 2019), 12% were uninsured, 24% were Medicare-insured, 32% Medicaid-insured, 28% were commercially insured, and 4% had another insurance source. Annual ED clinician revenue averaged $23.5 billion versus costs of $22.5 billion. In 2019, ED visits covered by commercial insurance generated $14.3 billion in revenues and cost $6.5 billion. Medicare visits generated $5.3 billion and cost $5.7 billion; Medicaid visits generated $3.3 billion and cost $7 billion. Uninsured ED visits generated $0.5 billion and cost $2.9 billion. The average annual foregone revenue for ED clinicians to treat the uninsured was $2.7 billion. CONCLUSION: Large cost-shifting from commercial insurance cross-subsidizes ED professional services for other patients. This includes the Medicaid-insured, Medicare-insured, and uninsured, all of whom incur ED professional service costs that substantially exceed their revenue. Foregone revenue for treating the uninsured relative to what may have been collected if patients had health insurance is substantial.

Trends in Short-, Intermediate-, and Long-Term Mortality Following Hospitalization for Myocardial Infarction Among Medicare Beneficiaries, 2008 to 2018.

Background Advances in technology and care quality have transformed the care of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but little is known about trends in mortality rates across separate time periods after hospitalization. Methods and Results We identified all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized with incident AMI from 2008 to 2018. We calculated unadjusted mortality rates by dividing the number of all-cause deaths by the number of patients with incident AMI for the following time periods: acute (in hospital), post acute (0-30 days after hospital discharge), short term (31 days to 1 year after discharge), intermediate term (1-2 years after discharge), and long term (2-3 years after discharge). Each period was considered separately (ie, patients who died during one period were not counted in subsequent periods). Using logistic regression to account for differences in patient characteristics, we calculated annual risk standardized mortality ratios defined as observed over expected mortality based on 2008 rates. Among 768 084 patients with incident AMI (mean age 81 years, 48% male, 87% White), declines in observed-to-expected mortality ratios were observed for each time period: acute (0.68 [95% CI, 0.66-0.71]), postacute (0.72 [95% CI, 0.71-0.75]), short term (0.77 [95% CI, 0.75-0.78]), intermediate term (0.79 [95% CI, 0.77-0.81]), and long term (0.77 [95% CI, 0.75-0.79]). Declines were observed both for patients with and without ST-segment-elevation AMI. Conclusions For patients with incident AMI, there have been improvements in mortality rates across periods spanning the hospital stay through 3 years after discharge, reflecting advances in AMI care from hospitalization through long-term outpatient follow-up.

Ongoing increase in incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in south-eastern Iran: A three decade study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of multiple sclerosis has been increased during the last decades throughout the world. Epidemiological studies could improve our understanding relating to its intrinsic and extrinsic causes. OBJECTIVES: The current study has been conducted to determine the epidemiological features of MS in south-eastern Iran which is a semi-tropical area with different ethnicities. METHODS: This longitudinal descriptive study was carried out in south-eastern Iran, based on information of MS patients registered at Zahedan University of Medical Sciences database from 1990 to 2020. RESULTS: A total of 1045 cases were enrolled into the study. The age-standardized prevalence ratio of MS increased to 42.2/100,000 population by 2020. These figures showed increasing trends both in females and males and reached to 61.5 and 22.6 per 100,000 population, respectively by the year 2020. Likewise, the total incidence rate grew to its maximum amount of 4.5 in 2015. Female incidence also revealed an upward trend and peaked in 2016 to 6.4 while male incidence rate reached at its highest level of 1.8 in 2009. CONCLUSION: MS prevalence ratios and incidence rates in south-eastern Iran have been increasing steadily, especially in women during the last three decades. The south-eastern part of Iran should be considered a high-risk region.

Medicare Hospice Policy Changes and Beneficiaries' Rate of Live Discharge and Length-of-Stay.

CONTEXT: The 2014 Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) Act systemized audits of long hospice stays, and the 2016 two-tier payment system decreased daily reimbursement rates after 60 days of enrollment. Both aimed to reduce long stays. OBJECTIVES: Examine how live discharge rates and length of stay changed in relation to the policies. METHODS: We computed monthly hospice-level percent live discharges and length of stay using 2008-2019 Medicare hospice claims. We compared prepolicies trends and postpolicies trends overall, within Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) patients, within lung cancer patients, and stratified by hospice ownership (for-profit vs. nonprofit/government-owned). RESULTS: We included 10,539,912 and 10,453,025 episodes of care in the analytical samples for live discharge and length of stay analyses, respectively. Overall percent live discharges declined during the prepolicies period (-0.13 percentage-points per month, 95% CI: -0.14, -0.12), but exhibited no significant change during the postpolicies period. Trends were driven primarily by for-profits, with similar patterns within ADRD and lung cancer patients. Overall, mean length of stay increased over time, with greater rate of increase during the postpolicies period (0.41 days per month, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.42) compared to the prepolicies period (0.12 days per month, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.14). Length-of-stay increased faster among ADRD patients, but changed minimally for lung cancer patients. CONCLUSION: Live discharge rates declined significantly during the prepolicies period, but plateaued after implementation of the policies, driven by changes in for-profits. However, the policies did not reduce length of stay, which increased at faster rates, suggesting that postpolicies excess live discharges were not restricted to long-stay patients.

Patients with complicated gallstone disease in the emergency department: clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of emergency department disposition decision.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the 1-year outcomes of emergency department (ED) patients with complicated gallstone disease, including surgery rates, initial admission rates, ED revisits, repeat hospitalizations, and cost. Methods: Using 3 linked statewide databases from the Maryland Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, we identified patients with a primary diagnosis of complicated gallstone disease treated in an ED between 2016 and 2018. We measured the healthcare use and direct costs in the ambulatory surgery, inpatient, and ED settings for 1 year after the initial ED visit. Finally, we performed a multivariate logistic regression analysis comparing initially admitted versus discharged patients. Results: Of the 8751 patients analyzed, 86.8% were admitted to the hospital and 13.2% were discharged on their initial ED visit. Of the admitted patients, 78.7% received a cholecystectomy during the initial hospitalization plus 6.1% at a later date; of the discharged patients, 41.5% received a cholecystectomy. Admitted patients demonstrated lower recurrent gallbladder complications compared with those discharged (7.5% vs 44.5%), fewer ED revisits (4% vs 20.3%), and fewer repeat hospitalizations (4.5% vs 16.7%). Despite this, the 1-year cost in the admitted patients was higher ($9448 vs $2933). Obesity, age, and mood disorders but not race, ethnicity, or zip code were associated with admission at initial ED visit. Conclusions: In our single-state analysis of ED patients with complications of gallstone disease, most patients are admitted on the initial visit and receive a cholecystectomy during that hospitalization. The discharged group had higher rates of 1-year complications, ED revisits, and repeat hospitalizations but lower cost.

Evaluation of Federal Policy Changes to the Hospice Benefit and Use of Hospice for Persons With ADRD.

Importance: Hospice is an important end-of-life service for patients with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD). Objective: To determine whether hospice use among patients with ADRD changed in association with recent policies aimed at reducing hospice misuse and long hospice stays, an outcome that may have disproportionately affected patients with ADRD because of their lengthy end-of-life trajectories. Design Setting and Participants: This observational cross-sectional study used Medicare hospice claims data from Medicare hospice episodes of care beginning between July 2008 and December 2019 among Medicare hospice beneficiaries 65 years or older at time of enrollment. Data analysis was conducted between September 2019 and June 2021. Exposures: The 2014 Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) Act, which systematized audits of hospices with a high proportion of long stays, and the 2016 2-tier payment system, which reduced daily reimbursement rates after 60 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly percentage of (1) new patient enrollees, (2) patient census, and (3) care days provided to patients with an ADRD code. Results: The sample included 11 124 992 unique hospice episodes between 2008 and 2019; mean (SD) patient enrollment age ranged from 82.0 (8.2) years to 82.8 (8.7) years; the percentage of male patients ranged from 40.5% to 42.7%, and the percentage of Black, Hispanic, and White patients ranged from 7.7% to 8.2%, 1.5% to 2.0%, and 86.2% to 88.8%, respectively, across years. The percentage of new enrollees with an ADRD code dropped significantly during the months of IMPACT passage (-1.42 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.13 to -0.71) and implementation (-1.98 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.70 to -1.26) but rose again during the following months. While no significant changes were observed at the time of 2-tier payment implementation (0.15 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.21 to 0.51), the average rate of increase during the subsequent period was slower (0.01 percentage points per month; 95% CI, 0-0.02) than in earlier periods (0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.06 during the baseline period). Similar patterns were observed for the percentage of patient census and care days provided to patients with an ADRD code. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cross-sectional study of Medicare hospice claims data suggested that recent Medicare policies were associated with immediate and lasting reductions in the share of patients receiving hospice care with an ADRD code compared with expectations from preimplementation trends. Future research should examine mechanisms through which hospices enacted change and consequences for quality of care.

Imperfect messengers? An analysis of vaccine confidence among primary care physicians.

BACKGROUND: Growing narratives emphasize using primary care physicians as leaders in efforts to promote COVID-19 vaccination among the vaccine hesitant. Critically however, little is known about vaccine confidence among primary care physicians themselves. The objective of this study was to assess both physician confidence that in general, vaccines are safe, effective, and important, as well as physician confidence in each COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. METHODS: We rely on data from a national survey of primary care physicians conducted from May 14-May 25, 2021. We assess the influence of demographic, social, and political factors on physician beliefs that in general, vaccines are safe, effective, and important, as well as physician confidence in the safety of the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines. RESULTS: 10.1% of primary care physicians do not agree that, in general, vaccines are safe, 9.3% do not agree they are effective, and 8.3% do not agree they are important. While 68.7% of physicians were 'very confident' in the safety of the Moderna vaccine and 72.7% were 'very confident' in the safety of the Pfizer vaccine, only 32.1% of physicians were 'very confident' in the safety of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine. CONCLUSION: A troubling proportion of primary care physicians lack high levels of vaccine confidence. These physicians may not be well positioned to actively promote COVID-19 vaccination even as political and media narratives push physicians to lead this effort. Interventions aimed at improving vaccine confidence among some physicians may be needed so that all physicians can fulfill needed roles as trusted vaccine communicators.

Financial impacts of the Medicaid expansion on community health centers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impacts of the Medicaid expansion on revenues, costs, assets, and liabilities of federally funded community health centers. DATA SOURCES: We combined data from the Uniform Data System, Internal Revenue Service nonprofit tax returns, and county-level characteristics from the Census Bureau. Our final dataset included 5841 center-year observations. STUDY DESIGN: We used difference-in-differences model to estimate the fiscal impacts of the Medicaid expansion on community health centers. We employed event study models, state-specific trend models, and placebo law tests as robustness checks. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: On the revenue side, we found a $2.08 million relative increase (p = 0.002) in Medicaid revenues, offset by a $0.44 million decrease (p = 0.015) in total grants among community health centers in expansion states compared with centers in non-expansion states. On the expenditure side, we found a large but not statistically significant $0.98 million relative increase (p = 0.201) in total expenditures among centers in expansion states. Uncompensated care for health centers in expansion states decreased by $1.19 million (p < 0.001) relative to their counterparts in non-expansion states. CONCLUSIONS: Community health centers in expansion states benefited from the increased, stable revenue stream from Medicaid expansions. While Medicaid revenue increased as a result of the policy, we find no major evidence of substitution away from other revenue lines, with one notable exception (i.e., substitution away from state and local government grants). From a policy perspective, these results are encouraging as the Biden Administration starts to implement the safety-net enhancements from the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and as more non-expansion states are considering opting into Medicaid expansions. It is anticipated that these added revenue streams will help to sustain health centers in the delivery of health care services to the underserved population.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economics of United States Emergency Care.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected the economics of emergency department care (ED). METHODS: We conducted an observational study of 136 EDs from January 2019 to September 2020, using 2020-to-2019 3-week moving ratios for ED visits, complexity, revenue, and staffing expenses. We tabulated 2020-to-2019 staffing ratios and calculated hour and full-time-equivalent changes. RESULTS: Following the COVID-19 pandemic's onset, geriatric (age ≥65), adult (age 18 to 64), and pediatric (age <18) ED visits declined by 43%, 40%, and 73%, respectively, compared to 2019 visits and rose thereafter but remained below 2019 levels through September. Relative value units per visit rose by 8%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, compared to 2019, while ED admission rates rose by 32%. Both fell subsequently but remained above 2019 levels through September. Revenues dropped sharply early in the pandemic and rose gradually but remained below 2019 levels. In medium and large EDs, staffing and expenses were lowered with a lag, largely compensating for lower revenue at these sites, and barely at freestanding EDs. Staffing and expense reductions could not match revenue losses in smaller EDs. During the pandemic, emergency physician and advanced practice provider clinical hours and compensation fell 15% and 27%, respectively, corresponding to 174 lost physician and 193 lost advanced practice provider full-time-equivalent positions. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely impacted the economics of ED care, with large drops in overall and, in particular, low-acuity ED visits, necessitating reductions in clinical hours. Staffing cutbacks could not match reduced revenue at small EDs with minimum emergency physician coverage requirements.

How emergency department visits for substance use disorders have evolved during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: Higher opioid overdoses and drug use have reportedly occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide evidence on how emergency department (ED) visits for substance use disorders (SUD) changed in the early pandemic period. METHODS: Using retrospective data from January-July 2020 compared to January-July 2019, we calculated weekly 2020/2019 visit ratios for opioid-related, alcohol-related, other drug-related disorders, and all non-COVID-19 visits. We assess how this ratio as well as overall visit numbers changed after the mid-March 2020 onset of general pandemic restrictions. RESULTS: In 4.5 million ED visits in 2020 and 2019 to 108 EDs in 18 U.S. states, SUD visits were higher in early 2020 compared to 2019. During the peak-pandemic restriction period (March 13-July 31), non-COVID-19, non-SUD visits fell by approximately 45% early on, and then partly recovered with an average decline of 33% relative to 2019 levels. Visits for opioid-related, alcohol-related, and other drug-related disorders also declined, although less sharply, with an average drop of 17%, which was similar across SUD types. The visit ratios for 2020/2019 partially or fully recovered later in our sample period, depending on SUD type, but did not exceed early-2020 levels. However, substantial variation occurred across SUD types and across states. SUD visit declines were most prominent in the 65+ age group, except for alcohol-related visits where trends were similar across ages. SUD visits arriving by ambulance declined less or increased relative to self-transport visits, and ED deaths were rare. CONCLUSIONS: The 2020/2019 ratios of SUD ED visits fell substantially early in the COVID-19 pandemic, yet less than non-SUD, non-COVID ED visits. SUD ED visit ratios partly or fully recovered to 2019 levels by early June 2020, but did not exceed early 2020 ratios.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department visits for serious cardiovascular conditions.

OBJECTIVE: We examine how emergency department (ED) visits for serious cardiovascular conditions evolved in the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic over January-October 2020, compared to 2019, in a large sample of U.S. EDs. METHODS: We compared 2020 ED visits before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, relative to 2019 visits in 108 EDs in 18 states in 115,716 adult ED visits with diagnoses for five serious cardiovascular conditions: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and heart failure (HF). We calculated weekly ratios of ED visits in 2020 to visits in 2019 in the pre-pandemic (Jan 1-March 10), early-pandemic (March 11-April 21), and later-pandemic (April 22-October 31) periods. RESULTS: ED visit ratios show that NSTEMI, IS, and HF visits dropped to lows of 56%, 64%, and 61% of 2019 levels, respectively, in the early-pandemic and gradually returned to 2019 levels over the next several months. HS visits also dropped early pandemic period to 60% of 2019 levels, but quickly rebounded. We find mixed evidence on whether STEMI visits fell, relative to pre-pandemic rates. Total adult ED visits nadired at 57% of 2019 volume during the early-pandemic period and have only party recovered since, to approximately 84% of 2019 by the end of October 2020. CONCLUSION: We confirm prior studies that ED visits for serious cardiovascular conditions declined early in the COVID-19 pandemic for NSTEMI, IS, HS, and HF, but not for STEMI. Delays or non-receipt in ED care may have led to worse outcomes.

The ACA Medicaid Expansions and Opioid Mortality: Is There a Link?

The Medicaid expansions made addiction treatment more accessible but they also made it less costly to obtain the prescription opioids that can trigger an addiction. We investigated the association between the Medicaid expansions and drug-related deaths. We add to the literature by explicitly accounting for the properties of illicit drug markets and by conducting a simulation-based power analysis to assess whether a plausible change in drug-related mortality could be detected with our data. We identify three main challenges in isolating the effect of the Medicaid expansions on drug-related mortality that cannot be sufficiently addressed with current data: (a) nonparallel preexpansion trends in drug-related mortality, (b) the contemporaneous surge in the supply of illicitly manufactured fentanyl, and (c) lack of statistical power. We argue that more comprehensive data are needed to answer this question.

The Three-Year Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Emergency Department Visits and Admissions.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We examine the effect of the Medicaid expansion in 2014 under in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on emergency department (ED) utilization and ED admission rates (fraction of ED visits that lead to hospital admission) during the first 3 postexpansion years (2014 to 2016). METHODS: We compared ED utilization and ED admission rates in 151 EDs in 14 expansion states with those in 376 EDs in 14 nonexpansion states, using difference-in-differences methods with data from 3 national emergency medicine groups from 2013 to 2016. RESULTS: In expansion states, the volume of Medicaid-paid ED visits increased 49% (95% confidence interval 34% to 65%), and the volume of uninsured visits decreased 44% (95% confidence interval -52% to -34%) relative to that of nonexpansion states. Both effects on payer mix leveled off during 2015. There was no significant relative change in overall ED utilization or overall ED admission rates in expansion versus nonexpansion states during the study. However, relative ED admission rates for uninsured patients declined 8% (95% confidence interval -18% to -2%) in expansion states. CONCLUSION: Large changes in payer mix in expansion versus nonexpansion states were observed but leveled off during 2015, with more Medicaid-paid visits and fewer uninsured visits in expansion states. Despite these large changes, during this 3-year period, there was no evidence that expansion affected either overall ED visit volume or ED admission rates. The relative decline in ED admission rates in expansion states among the uninsured may reflect a selection effect in which, among newly Medicaid-eligible persons, sicker persons were more likely to enroll than healthier ones.